Azerbaijan, Iran, and the U.S.

Perhaps the invitation of Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev to the White House was motivated by solely by Iran: that Ahmadinejad would see Bush and Aliyev meeting, and worry that Iran's northern neighbor would become a staging ground for U.S. troops. If Aliyev would have kept quiet on the topic of his discussions with Bush, Bush might have had some deterrance chips on the table, with which he could at least do some bluffing. But no. On the first day of his three-day visit, Aliyev told the Council on Foreign Relations that he's staying out of the fray, according to the Washington Post. Other articles are here and here; and here is The Nation, looking at the visit more from the oil perspective than the Iran-containment/attack plan perspective.

American efforts to place military resources in Azerbaijan, of course, are nothing new. I wrote a bit in August 2005 about Donald Rumsfeld's visits to the country, reportedly looking for air base locations. But Aliyev spoke so forcefully in D.C. this week about his commitment to neutrality that one cannot expect much help.

Azerbaijan, however, is a country, however, with some characteristics that make it in U.S. interests to court - if its horrible human rights record is ignored. It's a Muslim state with a key oil-pipeline location, but the Economist wrote recently on the similarities betweeen Alexander Lukashenko's Beralus and Aliyev's Azerbaijan. The only difference there is in ruling style, according to the Economist, is that Azerbaijan pretends to support civil liberties, while Lukashenko is is more brazen and diplomatically impolite. The article is subscription only.

In other Iran-watch news, Bush was reportedly bringing to town another president of another country that borders Iran: Armenia. And it's right up there with Azerbaijan and almost Belarus on civil rights issues. But then again, no. It seems when "Armenia Liberty" reported the future visit, it was mistaken, and the next day, they reported that the visit is not planned. (One can analyze the two articles and guess what happened.)

So the balancing act continues - attempting to chastise countries that have rigged elections, media abuse, and smash the opposition on one hand, and trying to gain some real estate for air bases on the other.