brianjphillips

Thursday, April 06, 2006

Books about "the next" disaster

NPR had Daniel Benjamin on today, the latest in a long line of authors to point out how many U.S. mistakes have been made before and since Sept. 11, 2001. His book, "The Next Attack: The Failure of the War on Terror and a Strategy for Getting it Right", covers some familiar ground, it seems. One gathers that it could alternatively titled "Against All Enemies Part Two: I predicted 9/11 but no one listened to me, and here's my advice for the future."

But seriously, that's only half the story. The real meat of this book appears to be that Benjamin lays out a solid plan of action for both preventing future attacks and (more originally) how to prepare the U.S. legal system for the martial law that might be required afterward.

What this book makes me think of, though, is the whole genre of books that seem pretty apocalyptic, yet are firmly based in fact: These books are a bit of guilty pleasure of mine. Sure, they should be taken seriously, but there is a horror-film element to them that makes them all the more enjoyable. Forget the bad alien movies; there are enough villains and monstrous devices on earth.

Examples? How about "Nuclear Terrorism" by Graham Allison. I couldn't put this book down. Maybe it was the theoretical "Blast Maps" of major cities that the book details, which are also shown on Allison's aptly-named web site, nuclearterrorism.org. Maybe it was the account of how easily one could acquire a suitcase bomb. Nonetheless, this book is scary - in an educational sort of way.

A classic of this genre is Herman Kahn's "On Thermonuclear War." This sober, scientific book scared the pants off of people in 1960 when it was first published, and can have the same effect today. This book made people think.

Granted, some books intending to predict doomsday have been woefully wrong. Hal Lindsey, for example, has made a career of such work. Consider the following titles:

"The Late, Great Planet Earth" (1970)
"World's Final Hour: Evacuation or Extinction" (1975)
"The 1980s: Countdown to Armageddon" (1980)
"Terminal Generation" (1981)
"Planet Earth 2000 A.D.: Will Mankind Survive?" (1996)

Ok, those are hilarious, especially "The 1980s: Countdown to Armageddon." This gem explains how the Soviet arsenal could easily overpower the West, and it's only a matter of time... Religious works (as these are), though, really should be in a different category than human-caused annihilation works - such as those that deal with nuclear holocaust.

And books aside, morbidly fascinating examples abound. How about the Warsaw Pact's plan for responding to a nuclear attack, made public last November? The concept of national missile defense in general also reminds one of rather grim realities. Before Sept. 11, NMD was a significant Bush Administration priority.

Anyway, it's much nicer to think of happy spring days. But it's good that someone is researching the less-cheerful news.

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